David S. Siroky, PhD
Professor of International Relations, Department of Political Science, University of Florida.
Director, Violence, Conflict and Security Lab
Field Chair, International Relations, PhD, MA in IR and BA Certificate
Faculty Member, Florida Institute for National Security.
Faculty Affiliate, AI in Politics Lab
David Siroky is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida, Director of the Violence, Conflict and Security (ViCS) Lab, and a faculty member of the Florida Institute for National Security (FINS). He is a scholar of international security whose research examines nationalism, insurgency and military intervention.
His research develops new ways of studying and forecasting conflict and political violence, drawing on artificial intelligence and machine learning, complex systems, and experimental approaches.
His teaching covers international security, nationalism, and conflict forecasting, and spans across residential, online, and hybrid settings. He is particularly interested in connecting rigorous social science research with the needs of national security practitioners and policy professionals.
He is the co-author of two books with Cambridge University Press. Defection Denied: A Study of Civilian Support for Insurgency in Irregular War (2022) examines the sources and limits of civilian support for militant organizations using unobtrusive survey experiments. His latest book, Clients, Rivals and Rogues: Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars (2026), develops and tests a new theory of major-power intervention in revolutionary conflicts.
His current book projects extend this research in complementary directions. Predicting Secession conceptualizes secession as a dynamic, multi-actor process and uses computational methods to forecast escalation in self-determination movements. Honor, Violence and Asymmetric War examines how informal institutions and honor codes structure behavior, organize loyalty, and shape strategy in asymmetric wars and areas of limited statehood.
Siroky’s research has been published in leading journals across international relations, comparative politics, security studies, and political methodology. His work has received major external support from the U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of State, and National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, as well as scholarly recognition including the Stanley Hoffman Prize and the Deil Wright Award from the American Political Science Association.
Research Interests
Selected Recent Publications
2026. Erin Jenne, Milos Popovic and David S. Siroky, Clients, Rivals and Rogues: Why Great Powers Intervene in Revolutionary Civil Wars, Cambridge University Press. [link] [Chapter 1, free]
2023. Christopher W. Hale and David S. Siroky, Irredentism and Institutions, British Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 498-515. [link, pdf]
2023. Emil Souleimanov, David S. Siroky and Roberto Colombo, Blood Revenge in Civil War: Proof of Concept, Security Studies, 32(1), 101-136. [link, pdf] [short essay for Modern War Institute, West Point, USA]
2022. David S. Siroky, Valery Dzutsati and Lenka Bustikova, Defection Denied: A Study of Civilian Support for Insurgency in Irregular War, Cambridge Elements Series in Experimental Political Science. Cambridge University Press. [[link]
2022. Emil Aslan Souleimanov, David S. Siroky and Peter Krause, Kin Killing: Why Governments Target Family Members in Insurgency and When it Works, Security Studies, 31(2), 187-217. [link, pdf] [short essay for Modern War Institute, West Point, USA]
2022. David S. Siroky, Emil Aslan Souleimanov, Jean-Francois Ratelle and Milos Popovic, Purifying the Religion: An Analysis of Haram Targeting among Salafi Jihadi Groups, Comparative Politics, 54(3): [link] [pdf]
2021. David S. Siroky, Milos Popovic and Nikola Mirilovic, "Unilateral Secession, Great Power Contestation and International Recognition," Journal of Peace Research, 58(5): 1049-1067 [link] [pdf]
