David S. Siroky, PhD
David Siroky teaches in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University, where he is a core faculty member of the Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity and the working group on Nationalist and Ethno-Religious Dynamics. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for the Study of Religion and Conflict, the Center for Jewish Studies, the Melikian Center for Russian, Eurasian and East European Studies, and the Center on the Future of War.
He studies conflict, cooperation and collective action in politics and economics. Most of this work has focused on three substantive areas: (1) nationalism, particularly its separatist and irredentist strains; (2) the dynamics of insurgency and counterinsurgency; and (3) the politics and international relations of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. He is also engaged in research on methodology, and has mainly worked on (1) big data and machine learning, including algorithmic modeling (e.g., Random Forests and GBDT) along with text mining (e.g., NLP), (2) computational modeling (e.g., complex systems and microscale models), and (3) causal inference with unobtrusive experimental techniques (e.g., endorsements, RRM, UCT).
These efforts appear in more than thirty peer-reviewed articles, printed in some of the leading substantive and methodology journals, and in Defection Denied: A Study of Civilian Support for Insurgency in Irregular War (Elements in Experimental Political Science, Cambridge University Press, 2022), which analyses the nature and sources of civilian support for militant groups during wartime utilising unobtrusive survey experiments.
Currently, he is working on two further book projects. The first is called Clients, Rivals and Rogues: Three Logics of Great Power Side-taking in Revolutionary Civil Wars, and is under review with Cambridge University Press. It investigates why and where great powers have (and have not) intervened in regime conflicts around the world, from the Second World War to the present, using innovative data and copula-based modeling to test a new theory of major power intervention against rival explanations.
The second project is under contract with Cambridge University Press (Elements in Political Economy), and is called Predicting Secession: Means, Motives and Mobilization. It conceptualizes secession as an evolutionary process, and uses political economy theories along with machine learning methods to forecast escalatory dynamics in self-determination movements.
He has received major grants as PI and co-PI from the U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of State, and National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, along with research fellowships from the Fulbright Foundation, Zentrum fuer Interkulturelle Studien in Germany and Fondation Maison des Sciences de l'Homme in France. His work has been recognized with several awards, most recently the Deil S. Wright Best Paper Award from the American Political Science Association's section on Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations.
2022. David S. Siroky, Valery Dzutsati and Lenka Bustikova, Defection Denied: A Study of Civilian Support for Insurgency in Irregular War, Cambridge Elements Series in Experimental Political Science. Cambridge University Press. [[link]
2022. Christopher W. Hale and David S. Siroky, Irredentism, Ethnicity and Institutions, British Journal of Political Science, tbd
2022. Emil Aslan Souleimanov, David S. Siroky and Peter Krause, Kin Killing: Why Governments Target Family Members in Insurgency and Why it Works, Security Studies, tbd
2022. David S. Siroky, Emil Aslan Souleimanov, Jean-Francois Ratelle and Milos Popovic, Purifying the Religion: An Analysis of Haram Targeting among Salafi Jihadi Groups, Comparative Politics, 54(3): [link] [pdf]
2021. David S. Siroky, Sean Mueller, Andre Fazi and Michael Hechter, "Containing Nationalism: Culture, Economics and Indirect Rule in Corsica," Comparative Political Studies, 54(6): 1023-1057. [link] [pdf]